Baltika risks dropping out of the top five.
Lokomotiv defeated Baltika 1-0 in the penultimate round of the Russian Premier League, knocking both Kaliningrad and CSKA out of the medal race. Alexander Rudenko’s goal and Anton Mitryushkin’s penalty save (Ilya Petrov missed) sealed the win.
Now only two competitors remain: Lokomotiv and Spartak.
Lokomotiv needs just a draw, or Spartak dropping points.
The championship battle will only be decided on the final matchday, but the medal race could end as early as Monday. Lokomotiv leads Spartak by five points, with Spartak having a game in hand.
Lokomotiv will face CSKA away in the final round, while Spartak has a home game against Rubin and an away match against Dynamo Makhachkala.
For Lokomotiv, avoiding defeat against CSKA is enough to secure bronze. If Spartak fails to beat Rubin, Lokomotiv will clinch third place early.
Spartak must win both remaining matches and hope Lokomotiv loses. Before this round, Lokomotiv were clear favorites at 1.50 for medals compared to Spartak’s 3.20. Now the odds have shifted dramatically: 1.10 for Lokomotiv (86% probability) versus 7.00 for Spartak (14%).
Baltika fought for medals until the penultimate match – and they are newcomers!
Everyone has grown accustomed to seeing Baltika near the top, but it remains remarkable: the team only just returned from the Pari League and immediately challenged for the top three.
Initially, Baltika were rated fourth from bottom with championship odds of 2000.00, but by the winter break those odds had plummeted 57-fold. Here’s how their medal chances evolved:
– After the fifth round, Baltika’s medal odds were 30.00. They were one of three unbeaten teams, sitting fifth just two points off third place.
– From the seventh round onward, odds on Baltika medals appeared regularly: by the winter break they had dropped to 10.00 despite being in the top five and two points off third.
– After the 20th round, odds fell below 10 for the first time – 8.00. Baltika moved to fourth place, five points behind third.
– After the 22nd round, their best chance: just 4.00, implying a 25% probability. They were fourth, three points clear of CSKA and four ahead of Spartak, only two points behind Lokomotiv.
At that point, Baltika beat Sochi 4-0. Then they went nearly two months without a win, and the slump continues: four draws and three losses, not a single clean sheet.
– Even four rounds from the end, Baltika had high odds of 4.30 (23%) for bronze. They were fourth, three points behind Lokomotiv. But then they lost three consecutive matches 0-1 – to Akron, Rubin, and Lokomotiv.
Now they trail by seven points with one round to go.
Baltika can finish at best fourth, but if Spartak beats Rubin, they will lose even that chance. Even a top-five finish is in doubt. They lead CSKA by one point, but in a tiebreaker, CSKA would have the edge (head-to-head is equal, but CSKA have more wins).
Baltika’s final match is at home against Dynamo, while CSKA visits Pari NN and then hosts Lokomotiv.
Interestingly, four rounds from the end, Baltika finishing in the top five was priced at 1.17 – an 85% probability! Now achieving that result will be tough: odds are 2.00 (48%).