Home runs are making a strong comeback in Major League Baseball.
Consider this: After a 20-year span from 2002 to 2021 without a single 60-home-run season, two such campaigns have occurred in just the last four years. And the 2026 MLB season is off to an explosive start, with a newcomer challenging the perennial favorite.
New York Yankees star Aaron Judge began the year as the frontrunner once again, and he’s currently tied for the league lead with 14 home runs. Sharing that top spot is Chicago White Sox rookie sensation Munetaka Murakami, a 26-year-old who spent most of his career in Japan before making his MLB debut.
Here’s a look at the odds for who will finish the regular season with the most home runs, as of May 6 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
**Most Regular-Season Home Runs**
– Aaron Judge: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)
– Matt Olson: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
– Munetaka Murakami: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
– Kyle Schwarber: +950 (bet $10 to win $105 total)
– James Wood: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
– Ben Rice: +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total)
– Yordan Alvarez: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
– Mike Trout: +2700 (bet $10 to win $280 total)
– Byron Buxton: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
**The Favorite:** Is it any surprise? Aaron Judge has led MLB in home runs three times in his career, including twice since 2022. He set an American League record with 62 homers in 2022, followed by an injury-shortened 2023 season where he still hit 37 in 106 games. He then led the sport with 58 in 2024, and last season finished with 53, the fourth-highest total in the majors. After opening the season as a +350 favorite, he’s now favored at -130. So far in 2026, he has 14 home runs in 128 at-bats, putting him on pace for 63.
**Murakami-sama:** What a debut. Murakami is taking North America by storm in his first MLB season, also posting 14 homers in 127 at-bats (on pace for 63). He has 31 hits total, meaning nearly half of his hits have been home runs. Only Rhys Hopkins (18) and Aristides Aquino (15) had more home runs in their first 35 MLB games in league history. Despite his torrid start, Murakami is only a slight favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year, sitting at +160, just ahead of Detroit’s Kevin McGonigle (+185).
