Why Bobi Wine is a threat: Regionalism not tribalism will be a tsunami for NRM


Author - Mwaka Lutukumoi
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By Mwaka Lutukumoi


“Advice to NRM: Negotiate your way out of power to avoid humiliations,” Mwaka

In 1980s, the demographic of youth population was higher, though not 78% below 30 years.

Uganda has the youngest youth population in the world at 77% being between the above ages. 80% are unemployed and are easily swayed by emotions not reason.

By 1980s, the population was 15.15 million compared to over 37.673.800 millions today, according to Uganda Bureau of Statistics [UBOS]. However it’s estimated at 42 million now.

President Museveni used the youth to join him to fight a protracted war that he won in 1980s.

Now, Bobi Wine has discovered the power of youth under his people power movement from same lens and script like his predecessor Museveni.

It threatens the core of NRM existence however much money it will use, however much suppression it will use, and the options will be change by youth.

This time the war drums, rebel strategies and framing charges like treason won’t work as the methods are quiet different,  similar to Arab Spring.

The earlier UPDF realize this like Mugabe’s army in Zimbabwe read earliest and dethroned him before further bloodshed, the better; otherwise they will risk destroying the great reputation they built and risk going Gadafical not magical!

The second worse plaque is the tribal divisions that has been built the over years with one leader taking 3 decades from a tribe and one region.

Tribalism is bad when it brings division but great when used to build a nation like it was in Lancaster London in 1960s independence meeting of tribes and regions of Uganda that created the independence.

Like the Native Americans, they came together with 6 tribes and formed Seneca Nation.

It avoided extinction and stood against termination policy of the American Federal Government that passed obnoxious law of termination as millions of their land was to be grabbed and made Kanzui Dam in 1960s. Now they are a great nation.

In Uganda, President Museveni knew Baganda and central had the highest population. With 27 men mostly from western Uganda and Rwanda, they converged strategically and tactically in Luwero Triangle.

The repression of rebellion against NRA annoyed Uganda’s biggest population, Baganda that supported the unholy alliance that toppled Obote government and finally installed a life President.

Bobi Wine possesses yet another totally different style of opposition to unlike what NRM is used to crashing in Dr Kizza Besigye.

The best option was to put the people power idea out of action, but an idea can’t die! If Bobi not his driver was killed in August 2018, the same pressure would persist.

32 years, even silently within the ruling party, the members are only captured and can’t say beyond praise the Lord!

Now in 2021, if NRM doesn’t quickly wake up from its slumber nightmare of one leader and ruler-ship, it might be late.

Looking at Uganda population, its worrying, now I understand.  With Buganda [central] giving Bobi Wine 80% of their 10, 408, 701 million population; Eastern listening to their absolute poverty, jiggers and horrible lives, the 9, 832, 700 population will want to change their status.

Then if Northern listen to the disparity and to stop eating Uganda’s 40% of poverty, the 7, 817, 800 will want the two decades ghost of pain of war to go. Change is the thing.

Then, with Dr Kiza Besigye, and Mugisha Muntu’s new formation, and Hon Winnie Kizza’s Kasese, the 9, 614, 600 million populations in Western Uganda will be divided because they will never accept to be like a stupid housefly that is buried with a witch doctor’s body.

With the 37, 673, 800 million Ugandans according to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, and estimated at 42 million people, we are set to see unstoppable tsunami; the only option to NRM party – negotiate your way out of power to avoid humiliations.

Time has come. When the wind is blowing and the behind of a cock is exposed! Acholi wisdom, “yamo okodo dud gweno woko!”

MWAKA LUTUKUMOI is a former RDC and DP spokesman, now scholar based in USA.


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